The need for heretics in the society

Disclosure: I have realized that my blog pieces rarely have a coherent flow and I tend to jump around from one topic to another.  I wrote this piece after a long time. I guess the topic was something that was moving in my head for a long time.

Do not be shocked by the title. The word heretic has two different definitions according to Merriam-Webster.

1: a dissenter from established religious dogma; especially : a baptized member of the Roman Catholic Church who disavows a revealed truth

2: one who dissents from an accepted belief or doctrine 
 

I am actually referring to the latter definition. The modern heretic is a non-conformist who challenges assumptions. This makes the heretic an outlier. 

The amount of knowledge in this world is endless. In 2013, even with thousands of years of civilization the knowledge human beings have attained is probably about a drop in an ocean (in my opinion). There is just so much we don't know. There are also things we think we know but in reality what we know is incorrect. In spite of all this, we really love to believe that we know a lot and this problem is more so in our so called experts and politicians. 

I tend to believe that the people who have reached the highest levels on knowledge in their specific disciplines actually realize how little they know. However, according to Ariel Rubinstein of Tel Aviv University many of these so called experts (and politicians) have a natural incentive to give the impression that they already know everything. But we do have a few people like Friedrich Von Hayek whom many considers as the Renaissance man of twentieth century economics. Von Hayek in his final works mentioned that the economy is just too complex for politicians to avert recessions and unemployment without unintended consequences that may well be worse. He advised politicians and economists to be a bit more humble.

Human being in general loves to follow the herd. We try to follow the recent fad and buy the shares that most people are recommending. I guess it gives us a sort of mental peace that even if what we are doing is wrong we are still with the crowd. And boy, do we love shooting down those who come up with radical thoughts.

But we NEED the outliers, the people who would dare to go against the crowd.The people who would challenge the theories which we have taken for granted. History has shown us that time after time that such people have emerged and their discoveries have changed the course of the entire world. But, easier said than done. It takes guts to go against the mass.

Personally I am guilty of acting like a so called EXPERT. So this is what I am advising to myself (and anyone else who is reading this post). 

1. Always look at both sides of the table before coming to my conclusion. Only after neutrally looking at alternate sides can I come at a solution. In certain issues, like economics for instance their might not be a solution at all. 

2. Encourage other people to be outliers. Do not shoot down people who hold the absolute opposite views than me. Be ready to change my view if enough evidence is shown.

3. Be more humble.

How to utilize the last 30 days before CFA exam

Preparation for any exam is somewhat of an art and people use different techniques. Still, we know that hard work is the key to success. Also, there are some methods which work better than others. I just wanted to mention some of the techniques which I followed during the last 30 days or so in all the 3 levels of the exam. Hopefully these will help everyone.

General Tips for last 1 month
Mock Exams
• I usually used the final month to give 3-4 mock exams in the first 15-20 days or so. After every exam, I put in my scores in an excel sheet to see topic wise scores.
• While giving the exam I usually marked the questions which I found difficult and the questions which I just answered on guess work.
• Next, I identified my mistakes by looking at the correct answers for not only the mistakes but those I got correct through guesswork. When I was unable to understand the answer, I went back to the text book.
• When I scored poorly on a topic I revised that topic and then went for the next mock exam. I repeated the same thing for the next exams but also observed whether my scores are improving or not overall and my weaker segments. Usually I put a lot of emphasis on my ethics score.

Revision
• In the last 10-15 days I usually went for a revision of the whole syllabus. Usually I went LOS by LOS. The objective was to see whether I could understand the concept crystal clearly for all the LOS. Once a LOS was mastered I crossed it out.
• I constantly revised the formulas. I usually made my own formula sheet and used to carry it wherever I went.

Things not to be missed 
• Make sure you have done ALL the end of chapter (EOC) questions from the original book. I would suggest that people do not waste time on questions from Schweser as real exam is very different from Schweser questions. If you have completed everything else and still have time then do Schweser exams.
• Some of the EOCs are quite complicated. I usually marked them to review them over and over again until I mastered them.
• Go through all the blue box examples from original book.

Planning for the 30 days
• I used to make a 30 day plan specifying what I will revise or read in the last 30 days. Sometimes I fell behind my plan due to family obligations or work pressure but by studying more on other days I used to cover it up.
• Normally I suggest that people try to beat their own plan and stay ahead.

Notes
• Some people make their own notes. I usually only made notes for the most critical chapters. However, notes are supposed to be made 3-4 months before exam. Trying to make notes at the last moment is not advisable as it will eat away time.
• If however you already have own notes then instead of reading the book you can just read your notes (depends on the depth of the notes).

Day before the exam
• This day is very important. Confidence level is as important as the preparation itself. To cool the nerves remember that you have studied hard and given your best shot. After this it does not matter whether you pass or fail.
• Try to go to sleep early. I had insomnia problems on this day on almost all three levels and as a result on the exam day I felt weak. If you see any such problems take a sleeping pill on the night before the exam.
 • Check your admit card, pencils, eraser, pen, passport, calculator. Check your calculator settings and go through the important functions in your calculator. If you can borrow an extra calculator then borrow one for emergency purpose. Also carry batteries and screwdriver.
• Go through the formula sheet quickly. See if you correctly remember the notations and symbols used in the formula.

Exam day  
• Wake up early in the morning and take a shower. Go to the venue as early as possible. Do not try to study just before the exam. You can off course take a look at the formulas.
• When the exam starts, go to your favorite topic and start answering. THERE IS ONE GOLDEN RULE I FOLLOWED. IF I COULD NOT ANSWER A QUESTION ON THE FIRST ATTEMPT I SKIPPED IT. I GOT BACK TO THEM LATER ON. Please do not waste time on any questions. All questions carry the same marks. However some of them can make you lose a lot of valuable time. TIME MANAGEMENT IS ESSENTIAL IN ALL 3 levels.
• Read all the questions carefully and understand what is being asked. The worst thing that can happen is failing due to silly mistakes.
• If the AM session feels exceedingly hard do not lose hope. In that case PM will be easier. I remember coming out of the Level 2 AM session with the feeling that I will surely fail. However the PM was much easier and I actually scored >70% in 9 segments and between 50-70 in 1 segment.
• While filling out answer boxes please make sure you are answering the correct question. A mistake in answering sequence could change your grade absolutely.
• Even if you have finished the exam with 1 hour extra please recheck all the answers.
• Fill out answers for each and every question as there is no negative marking.

Level 1
• In level 1 you just need to go through the entire syllabus. The actual exam is usually quite easy and has more focus on theoretical questions. The quantitative questions are also quite simple.
• Normally, you would not even have to think for many of the questions. Also, some of the quantitative questions can be answered without even calculating anything.
• Focus on the ethics segment which is very crucial.
• Overall you can expect to finish both AM and PM within 2.5 hrs. But like I mentioned earlier, please use the whole time and recheck.

Level 2
• Level 2 has the largest syllabus, highest number of formulas and much tougher study material compared to level 1.
• Even though the focus is on asset valuation and FSA, I found derivatives to be quite complicated. In fact, I probably had to read the derivatives chapter 3-4 times to get the basic essence of it. In spite of that, I found the actual derivative questions to be exceedingly difficult.
• Unlike level 1, the portion of quantitative questions is larger. Also the questions are not that straight forward. CFAI throws some curveballs from time to time. After reading a particular vignette the questions might look absolutely alien to you. Use your common sense in answering in those times.
• Put strong emphasis on formulas. Also notice whether questions states annual, quarterly or monthly compounding etc. These can be tricky while doing Swaps, Forward Rate Arrangements etc.

Level 3
• Level 3 syllabus is slightly smaller than level 2. It is not as difficult as level 2 to understand but the trick is to apply the knowledge in the actual exam.
• To pass level 3 the candidate must know the concepts like the back of his/her hand. Even the simplest topic can be made very difficult by structuring the question in an obscure manner.
• The key to succeeding in level 3 largely depends on managing time for the AM (written) section. I would recommend that candidates practice as many AM sessions as possible. CFAI website has a lot of such practice exams.
• Just because AM was difficult do not expect PM to be much easier. Some questions had a lot of curveballs which many candidates did not even realize existed. However it is easier to score more in the PM compared to the AM section.

Final Words
Give your best shot and study as hard as possible. However, success or failure also has a bit of luck in it. However know that you can pretty much pass if you get 70% on average. So even if you get 50% of the questions right, eliminate one wrong answer on 25% of the questions and blindly guess the rest 25% you can score about 70.75% statistically. Also the pass marks for level 3 is definitely set at a lower level.

A message for the people of my generation

Do you have a university degree or are in the process of getting one? Did you start your career? If any of these criteria apply to you then this write up is meant for you. Regardless of your social and financial status, you still fall in the privileged class of the society. You might have worked very hard for reaching this stage but you CANNOT deny the contribution of luck and the millions of people working at minimum wages. Directly or indirectly, society did have an impact on your good fortunes. If you agree with me so far then you MUST show your gratefulness by giving back to the society. There are many ways of doing that but for now I want to talk about Zakat and Taxes.

Why should I give Zakat? I should give Zakat because it is not fair that some people are wasting their wealth while others are deprived of basic needs. I can give hundreds of more reasons but that is not necessary. Only additional comment I want to make about Zakat (I am not an Islamic Scholar so I am saying things from common sense) is that the intention is more important that the outcome. There is no hard and fast rule that one only gives 2.5% of liquid assets as Zakat. Why would you not give more if you can afford to give more? We frequently make up strange logic (cognitive dissonance) in our head and using that logic we try to justify that Zakat does not apply to us. These self made theories are utter bullshit. Today we might be the one in a position to give Zakat. Tomorrow, we can easily be the ones who would need the assistance.

Now, let me come to the issue of “Income Tax”. Less than 2% of the population pays taxes in Bangladesh. Income tax to GDP is probably one of the lowest in the world. This is pathetic. Why are we not paying our taxes? Firstly, we are not paying taxes because we are greedy. Secondly, we say that the government is corrupt and whatever money we are pay as taxes will go to their pockets. When I thought about the latter argument I found that this has no logical basis. If we can give vote to the two major parties we cannot say that they are corrupt and hence evade/avoid taxes. Also, we are using all the facilities that the state is providing using the money given by actual tax payers. We are using the roads, the street light, the public parks, enjoying the subsidies that government provides and what not.

Let us stop feeding ourselves all these lies just because we have become materialistic and greedy. Let us give the Zakat properly and if possible more than 2.5%. Let us pay our taxes properly and then fight for our right to information and transparency. We are accountable for our responsibilities as citizens and government is accountable for their parts. Allah would not make us responsible for the corruption done by the government but would definitely make us responsible if we are enjoying the benefits of taxation but not paying our taxes. In the worst case scenario, if you are adamant that you would not pay taxes then at least calculate your taxes and give that to people directly as charity. Once we are fulfilling our responsibilities let us go to our family and relative and ask them whether they are giving Zakat and paying taxes properly.

The article with no title (Part 1)

I sometimes wonder how my life would have turned out if I was born in a different family, maybe a less privileged one. When I was small, my family went through severe financial constraints but despite everything my father was adamant that I study in an English Medium school. During middle school I was borderline autistic because despite my attempts I pretty much understood nothing in class. Just before the exams my father and mother used to write down answers (while I sat beside them crying my eyes out) to the problems which I sort of crammed in my head.

Let me now fast forward to 2004. I came out of the IBA admission test exam dejected because I knew I sucked. My father was waiting outside. When I told him that I had a horrible exam the only thing he told me “ kono bepar na, tumi NSU te bhorti hoye jao”. I did however pass that written test only to get kicked out after the Interview.

What if I did not get all this support? What if my family could not afford the tuition for NSU? I am pretty sure I would not have been in the position I am in now. Maybe I would have turned into a Sweden Aslam or a Porimol. The third part of a video called Zeitgeist explains that the way a person is brought up by his family has immense impact on what he becomes. Of course there are outliers and criminals are born in good families as well. But outliers are well, “outliers”.

However, when we consider or judge a person we do not take these factors into account. In fact, I am inclined to believe that the whole societal value system is a complete farce. These days the person with the most expensive car, best looking girlfriend/boyfriend, or richest father is automatically treated with the most respect. People look at them as their role models and want to be like them.

Society fails to acknowledge the unsung heroes which are making huge impact in the lives of people. I started reading a book called “The Black Swan” by Nicholas Nasim Taleb. He wrote about a fictional person who made a legislation that imposed locks on cockpit doors. This helped avoid the 9/11 attacks (since the locks prevented the attacks) at high cost to the airlines. Since his measures squandered public resources the public with the help of airline pilots kicked him out of office. He thus retired depressed with a great sense of failure. Ultimately he died with the impression of doing nothing useful.

This is probably a very extreme story but similar stories are there in real life. I personally know two people (not my parents) who never said “no” when someone needed help. They went so out of their way to help other people that they could never concentrate on their own life. Both are sort of considered unsuccessful by the people they helped numerous times.

There is a wonderful film related to this topic called “It’s a wonderful life” which I recommend everyone to watch. The main character tried to save his town from the clutches of an evil banker but ultimately failed. He became so poor that he could not feed his family and ultimately decided to suicide. At that moment an angel came down and saved him and showed him how much he has impacted the lives of people around him. Even very small things he did had helped save lives.

So, if you are amongst the people, who believe in good deeds and believe in Allah, then have faith and keep doing what you are doing. Regardless of your social status, wealth or appreciation by people, you are definitely in the right path.

Let me conclude by saying that I really do not have a conclusion planned. Maybe after a few days something will come to my mind and I will just edit the last part (thanks to all these options).

Can a share buyback program solve our capital market problems?

Disclosure: The article was written on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 11:36am. It reflects the writer's personal opinions based on own analysis. The writer is not responsible for decisions taken on the basis of this article. Send your views at kh.asif@gmail.com.

This writeup is definitely not one of my better pieces. I wrote it in a hurry because I think that raising awareness on this issue is a must. So please forgive any mistakes and errors.

Background

Instead of going after valid issues like insider trading, price/volume manipulation, monitoring and compliance we seem to go after the wrong issues. I am basically referring to the plan to use “share buyback” as a way to ensure that stock prices do not remain “undervalued”. How does this work? Basically, when a company feels that its stock is trading below fair value it uses its own cash to buy back shares. It is easier to think that share buyback is similar to paying cash dividend because the company pays cash to existing shareholders to buy the shares.

Share buybacks are allowed in many countries of the world and particularly developed countries. However, that does not mean that it has to be adopted in Bangladesh as well. In fact, given the current condition of our economy and market I think that it will be a big mistake to allow share buyback. This is my preliminary response to the idea and I will hopefully write more after I get the final copy of the guideline in hand.

Reasons

I will try to be very specific on the reasons I am going to cite.

1. A new method of stock price manipulation: Once legalized, company management and sponsors will now be free to use the rumors and news of stock buyback to increase stock prices. Now since it is going to be legalized the manipulators would not face any problem whatsoever.

Let me give an example. When the seller knows that there is a ready buyer for the stock, the seller will be able to hike prices. Given the highly speculative nature of our market this is going to be a ticking time bomb where retail investors will once again fall prey to the schemes of the manipulators. This will be the new fad after bonus shares, rights shares and stock splits all of which led to unjustified increase in stock prices.

2. Objective of capital market: A developing country like Bangladesh needs to invest a lot for growth. Capital markets are created primarily because entrepreneurs can raise funds for investment. When we are allowing buy backs we are basically doing the reverse. Companies will be giving back money to the shareholders. This is definitely counter intuitive. When most of the companies are unable to give decent dividend yields how would they be able to buy back shares? One way may be to use leverage which makes things even worse. Already our capital market is heavily leveraged and the banks are going to pay a price for that. We really cannot afford to increase leverage any more.

3. Supply of shares would decline: It is common knowledge that we have lack of supply of quality shares. Now if companies start buying back own stock we are actually decreasing supply rather than increasing it. How that helps is a big question mark.

4. Focus to be diverted away from operations towards financing activity: Allowing buyback will definitely divert attention of management and the directors towards financing activities instead of trying to improve operational capabilities. These days everybody is trying to get rich in the shortest possible time which is why we see manufacturing companies investing in the capital market. This is highly detrimental for the country as resources are not being used for productive purpose but rather for speculative purpose.

5. Who has the necessary cash balance?: The only companies who should go for buybacks are companies with huge ‘net cash’ position which are unable to use that money for productive purpose. Thus there should be a clear guideline on who can go for buy back. Like I already mentioned, leveraged must not be allowed at any cost to buy back shares. Now if we look at the listed companies there are only a handful of companies who has the required balance sheet strength to buy back. I am quite sure that once the buyback rule is passed its going to be the companies with the weaker fundamentals that will use it rather than the ones who should go for buyback.

6. What are the penalties for violating rules?: My last concern is violation of the buyback rules. This is a sensitive thing and involves huge amount of money. Thus violation of buy back rules must be penalized with hefty punishment like imprisonment. I guess the penalty aspect would be clearer once the final copy of the law is out.

Conclusions

Instead of focusing on complex things like buybacks, we should use this time to work on the basics first. The priorities in my opinion are

1. Strong insider trading laws: Insider trading is rampant in our market where everybody seems to know earnings and corporate declarations much before the company announces them. This is the biggest evil right now.

2. Preventing price and volume manipulation: This is the second biggest problem. Syndicates corner shares and then start spreading rumors. In finance terms this is called “pump-and-dump”. We need to stop this.

3. Corporate governance and transparency: No need to elaborate on this. In terms of corporate governance and financial transparency we fall far behind compared to most neighboring countries.

4. Bonus shares/Splits: It is high time that investors realize that bonus shares do not mean anything. They don’t add any value to the company and thus should not increase stock price.

Whose money are we spending?

As per statistics the Bangladesh economy has been growing at a rate of 6% (Real) on average per year. Even though statistics are always a debatable issue it seems from indicators of people’s new found affluence and wealth that real incomes have indeed grown by 6% (or even more).

With rising incomes (on an aggregate basis) we are also seeing other factors coming up. One is the rise of “consumerism” and the other is “increasing inequality”. Let us talk about the former first. To prove this I do not need to work very hard. The signs are everywhere. Even though car taxes have been increased significantly I do not see any slowdown in car sales. Apartment prices have increased but sales did not slow down. Expensive tickets of dance shows that feature foreign artists are “sold out” instantly. How are people affording these things despite the high prices attached? The answer is very simple. These consumers represent a small portion of the population having a large portion of the wealth. It does not really matter to them whether prices have doubled or quadrupled. They can afford it.

On the contrary there is this other group (which off course represents the vast majority of the population) who are having a hard time to simply gather food and lodging. As per ILO’s Global Wage Report 2010/2011 the real average monthly minimum wage in Bangladesh has been on the slide, although its annual rate of fall had increased from -7.2 per cent in 2008 to -5.7 per cent in 2009. These people are seeing their purchasing power and living standards fall continuously.

I don’t think it requires any explanation to show that the rich are actually getting richer because of the sacrifices of the vast majority of the country’s people which includes the minimum wage workers, remittance earners and the farmers. Problem is GDP growth through inequality does not help the country but rather helps a particular group of people. Both governance systems as well as religious systems have acknowledged this issue and had tried to find ways to solve inequality. Governments try to do it by taxing the rich and providing safety nets for the poor. Religions (like Islam for e.g.) have a system of ‘Zakat’ and ‘Fitra’ which ensures that inequality is reduced. Unfortunately, most of us neither pay taxes properly nor pay ‘Zakat’ properly. Furthermore, because of corruption the tax that is paid by honest tax payers are also not utilized properly and thus these groups are being deprived even more.

A person like me can go out and spend my money as I wish thinking that it is my earnings. But when I look closely I need to remember that while economy is growing some people are being worse off. This indirectly suggests that there are people whose efforts led to my increased wealth.

The case becomes even stronger when we think of imported goods. When people become rich somehow they start wanting goods of higher quality and status (basically I am talking about imported goods). Let me use the example of a luxury car which people are buying even after paying 600% tax. Apart from the duty the actual import cost is paid in dollars. Thing is the importing consumer did not earn the foreign currency. “It is our migrant workers working and toiling away in far away countries away from their families (and presently risking their lives) who earned it”. You might say that we do earn foreign currency through exports but please remember that we have a trade deficit. Along with export earnings we do have associated import costs of raw materials and capital machinery. So, imported goods are bought using the migrant workers toils. Now tell me whether we give these guys their due respect for working so hard and being one of the major growth factors of our country. We don’t. Instead they are harassed, cheated and deprived.

Its now time to ask ourselves the very basic question “whose money are we spending?”. Relying on our government to reduce inequality is going to be futile. We ourselves have to find out ways to help solve this problem. I do not have a solution right now but I am going to try to find ways. Inequality harms the long term growth prospect of countries. This has been realized by the second largest (and fastest growing) economy in the world. China has already decided that they will lower growth expectations for 2011-2015 to 7% from their current double digit growth rates and instead focus on equality. Instead of focusing on exports they want to go for internal demand lead growth, which is only going to be possible by reducing the rich poor gap. Given the current state of the global economies where we are seeing shocks after shocks, as well as inevitable fiscal austerity programs (Europe started it already while US will go for it from 2013) this is probably the right way Bangladesh should move towards.

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Real heroes of Bangladesh: Part 1

Disclosure: This article is not meant to show how great a person I am. I am a human being full of flaws and mistakes and this is my way to pay back some people who deserve praise. Please ignore the grammatical mistakes since I do not feel like rechecking.


Foreword

This is not going to be a really organized post. I just felt like writing something about deprived people and did not feel like collecting any data to back up the claims I am going to make. Most of the claims will be based on logic.

Before I go into the topic I want to talk a bit about myself. I am a member of the privileged class. I studied in an English Medium school and a private university because my parents could afford it (they did have difficulty and I am grateful for the education I got). But frankly speaking, if I had not received this education and had been born in a poorer family I might have ended up in the streets. It is required that people like me acknowledge that we are lucky and that we have a responsibility towards specific groups of people.

The farmers of Bangladesh

The people I want to talk about first (next parts will hopefully focus on other groups including remittance earners and workers with minimum wages) are the farmers of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is about 90% (this is just a guess) self sufficient in rice production. This is definitely a big achievement considering the land area and the total population of the country. Food is a necessity and the simple fact that we are almost self sufficient in food production has saved the country from huge macroeconomic shocks. One interesting thing about economics is somehow everything is linked. Just because of food self sufficiency I can think (If I had time I could possibly expand this list) of the following factors

1.Lower inflation: This can be proven very easily. Firstly inflation rates in Bangladesh are still single digit whereas in neighboring India and Pakistan it is much higher. Another method would to compare PPP prices of rice amongst these countries.

2.Fx reserves: We are not having to import too much rice and hence we are not losing Fx reserves. That foreign currency is being used to import raw materials, capital machinery and luxury goods.

3.Food security: The world is currently going through a tough phase. A country dependent on others for imports can easily face a situation where no one wants to export food. We have been able to avoid that problem largely.

How they are losing out (the common factors)

The problem with farmers is that when production suffers due to weather problems (or any other factor) they make losses as they cannot recover their investments. However, the same problem is again seen when they have bumper harvests. In such times also product prices fall below their costs. So either way they lose. Together with this consider the margin that is stolen by the middle men. All this is common knowledge and all of us know it. The farmers themselves know it but since they were not born in the privileged society they have to live with these problems.

What did we miss?

There are however some other factors that we did miss. Central banks usually keep target inflation rates of around 4-7%. However, inflation rates frequently cross these targets. In such periods there are people who cannot pass on the increased cost of living by increasing product prices. While I do not have backing data on this, I am quite sure that farmers lose out in inflationary scenarios. The only way they can survive is by consuming less. I read numerous news of farmers in India committing suicide because they could not bear any more losses. The funny this is that because of the monetary system that central banks run, money supply will continuously increase and inflation will continue to happen.

In this same line of thought let me talk a bit about “inflation tax”. Like most countries in the world Bangladesh has been running budget deficits. Some of the deficit was there because the government had to improve the infrastructure, provide security, healthcare and education etc. However deficits are also increased by corruption and inefficiencies. Deficits are increased by state owned institutions that run at losses (due to greedy people). Deficits are increased by government’s bailing out of the stock market and failed institutions. How do the governments finance these deficits? The easy answer (and a widely practiced method) is just simply money printing. The result is higher inflation which has the same impact as a tax because both reduce purchase power. For the greed of a few corrupt people the whole country has to suffer loss in purchasing power. And the worst victims are those whose income does not increase with inflation (real incomes decline) and farmers are amongst this category.

Conclusion

I have never worked as a farmer and thus cannot describe how hard it really is. However one of my colleague had tried working in the fields once. According to him it is three times more difficult than pulling a rickshaw. I probably did not do justice to the farmers of Bangladesh and may have missed out the most important points.

Right now people give more value to things like BMW’s and Mazda’s compared to food, but that is going to change sometime or the other. We have already seen food crisis in 2008 and once again in 2011. In fact the protests that have shaken Middle East are somewhat related to food prices as well. There are no guarantees that international weather conditions would improve anytime soon and we might see a situation where food could easily become the most expensive item in the world. If all that is true maybe we should try to ensure that our farmers live a better life and are not deprived because of our actions and misdeeds.

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